October 2020 Market Update
Last updated: 12.20pm, Tuesday 13th October 2020
We look at the UK and Glasgow current and future economic, property, data and financial news in detail.
By Gordon Campbell
12th October 2020
We hope you and your families are all well.
We wanted to update you on the situation on the ground here in Glasgow, the UK and local economy and property markets.
We are delighted to have so many existing, repeat customers and recommended clients and surely testament to the great work we do here at Alliance Property Group.
Thanks to all our clients past and present, we really appreciate you placing your trust in us.
Unfortunately the UK is going through the second wave of the virus.
This is resulting in many local areas throughout the UK to have targeted conditions of restrictions.
In Glasgow, there is no lockdown as it was in the first wave, but certain conditions as in the table below.
There is also limitation of people not being able to visit other households as well.
The new local restrictions in Glasgow and Scotland are mainly targeting the hospitality sector as below.
Apart from the above, all businesses, including Alliance Property Group continue to operate and trade as normal and as best as they can, with all the recommend medical advice of social distancing, masks and sanitizing.
The UK Economy
UK’s GDP hit was huge in Q2;
It can be argued that *were* in recession - the sharpest drop ever recorded - but the recovery started in June (see graph below).
UK economy started growing again in May.
So as of the end of June it was around 17% smaller than pre-crisis levels - better than April, when it was 25% smaller.
The economy also grew 2.1% in August but remained 9.2% below its February level, official figures show.
The Office for National Statistics said the manufacturing sector grew by 0.7% (still 8.5% below February's figure) and construction grew by 3% (10.8% below February).
What happens next is still not defined but it is well anticipated there will be more financial pain for some in the world’s economy over the next few months unfortunately.
After what is expected to be a strong recovery in growth in the third quarter following the recession in the first half of the year, gross domestic product in the final three months of 2020 looks set to be hit by the resurgence of coronavirus and new social restrictions.
UK Property Market
House prices rose by 2.2% in August according to Nationwide, the strongest single month of growth since Feb-04.
While we always treat a single month’s figure with caution, this brings annual growth to 3.7%, the fastest growth in over three years.
Activity also remains very robust.
In the RICS survey for August, 82% of surveyors reported rising numbers of new buyer enquiries, while 73% saw rising numbers of new instructions.
This supply/demand mismatch has increased competition in the mainstream market, supporting the current value growth.
The rental market is also showing signs of strength. RICS data showed 75% of surveyors reported rising levels of demand from tenants.
Lending and Finance
High activity levels have stressed lender capacity.
Many lenders have therefore reduced the number of high LTV mortgages to UK nationals on offer, and raised the rates on others.
This will make it harder for those UK nationals with small deposits to get on the ladder.
Other pathways into low deposit ownership, Help to Buy or Shared Ownership for example, may become more attractive as result.
The current rise in rates is likely to be temporary. As activity eases, lenders will be keen to remain competitive.
The low interest rate environment will allow them to deliver affordable mortgage products with low rates, which will help sustain house prices.
New Lending Products for International Investors in Glasgow
You will have seen the email from us this week with new lending products for Glasgow.
The email stated:
We are always looking to enhance the service and products we offer at Alliance Property Group, and that includes finance.
This finance update is an example of that.
It is very positive news in our opinion as it ensures you can continue to plan positively in developing your portfolios.
There is 2 documents enclosed by clicking the links:
- Finance for International Investors for Any Value eg. the refinance for any property of any value e.g. £30,000
- Finance for International Investors - Assets of £75,000 +e.g. this can be for an individual property or multiple properties as long as the collective asset value is over £75,000
The rate is 4.89%
The new and existing product is excellent news and confirms the confidence, strength and commitment lenders have in the Glasgow and Scottish property market.
It confirms the lenders strength and confidence in the Glasgow market and with the new game changing mortgage offering for a single of multiple assets of a single or combined value of £75,000 and more, it now opens up more opportunities for you to enhance your portfolios with Alliance Property Group.
UK Housing Market Trends and Data
House prices have increased by 1010% since 1980!
That is 24 times the rate at which annual salaries have increased.
Beer is up only 694% !
UK Regional Trends
Source: HM Land Registry England and Scotland
Glasgow Housing Market
Scotland, led by Glasgow, continues to drive and lead house price increases in the UK, according to Rightmoves September House Price Index.
As you’ll no doubt have seen from us the last few months have been a particularly buoyant time for the property market here in Scotland.
Agents reported unprecedented transaction levels since the market re-opened at the end of June and essentially six months’ worth of property sales was conducted in around half that time.
During this time we’ve been able to secure some exceptional properties for some of our investor clients and that looks set to continue as we enter what is traditionally a quieter time of year in the market.
With less competition in the market this should present further opportunity for our clients to invest in the thriving Glasgow market.
Scotland continues to drive and lead house price increases in the UK, according to Rightmove September House Price Index.
A strong 1% monthly and 8.8% year to date increase.
UK average house prices increased by 3.4% over the year to June 2020 compared with 1.1% in the year to May 2020.
The average UK house price was £238,000 in June 2020, £8,000 higher than in June 2019.
This market in Glasgow is as equally strong with all letting agents reporting strong and unprecedented demand for all levels of the market is social to high end properties.
We will look at more detail in the next update on the data and trends in the local renting market and the resons for its continued growth and strenght.
In our last Market Update- August 2020 Market Update and Why is The Glasgow Housing Market Defying Gravity- (CLICK LINK TO READ)- we shared the reasons and explanations of why Glasgow continues to be such a strong market.
For Alliance Property Group and despite the very strong market, we continue to be very busy and confident and excited about the opportunities ahead.
We continue to get off market, below market value properties in the right area and with the right demand for rent or eventual resale.
We do a huge amount of work on each property to ensure that is the case and looking after every investors interests.
Don’t worry if you h as we have a lot of work constantly going on to secure new off market properties and opportunities.
More will be out soon! Watch this space.!
Despite all the ups and downs of the world at the moment,
There is always one positive long-term constant.
James and I have owned property for a combined 37 years, been through 3 recessions and all the ups and downs of the economic cycle, it never fails to serve us very well as the previous graphs have shown.
If you focus on property on a medium to long term strategy, you cannot go wrong.
There always is and always will be a demand for it.
Alliance Property Group offers a unique one stop solution and service of Off Market properties in a good location, at a great below market value price, in good condition and an area where there will continue to be demand for your properties, regardless of the economic cycle.
We are here to help, hold your hand if required and build long term relationships.
We share our 35 years’ experience as proven and successful Buy to Let investors and landlords, knowledge and partnering teams and help you create wealth and income.
It’s all about Making a Difference to you.
That’s what we do and that what we love
Thank you and take care.